Is a Housing Market Crash Coming, or Are Prices Just Slowing Down?

After years of fast-rising home prices, many buyers are understandably hoping for a market correction. But are we headed for a crash—or is something else happening?

According to Bob Schildt, a trusted loan officer who works closely with buyers across market cycles, the outlook isn’t nearly as dramatic as the headlines suggest.

"Affordability is tight right now, and the media tends to focus on that,” Schildt explains. "But the numbers tell a much calmer story. Most experts—including Freddie Mac—do not expect a crash."

Why a Crash Is Unlikely in 2025

The main reason? Simple economics: demand remains strong while supply is historically low. That imbalance continues to support home prices across much of the U.S.

"Inventory is still way too limited to create the kind of price drop many buyers are waiting for," notes Schildt. "We’re not seeing the kind of oversupply that leads to a crash."

While home value appreciation has cooled from its pandemic peak, most markets are still seeing slow, steady growth rather than declines.

Social Media vs. Market Data

The idea of a 20% price crash is popular on social media—but it’s not backed by current market data. In fact, according to national housing reports, home prices are either flat or modestly rising in most areas.

"Buyers scrolling online are seeing dramatic predictions, but those rarely reflect what’s actually happening on the ground," says Schildt.

What About Local Markets?

Real estate remains highly local. Some overheated markets may experience small corrections, especially if prices ran far ahead of incomes. But those shifts are not the same as a nationwide crash.

"A few cities might see price dips, but that’s normal market movement—not a crisis,” Schildt explains on BobSchildt.com. "We’re not looking at anything like 2008."

What Buyers Should Focus on Instead

Waiting for a huge drop in prices may actually backfire. If rates fall in the future, more buyers could flood the market—leading to more competition and higher prices.

"If you find a home that fits your budget and needs today, don’t get stuck waiting for a mythical bottom," Schildt advises. "Timing the market is nearly impossible. The better move is securing the right deal for your goals now."

The Bottom Line

A major housing crash is unlikely in 2025. While affordability is a real challenge, the fundamentals—low inventory and steady demand—are keeping the market stable.

As Bob Schildt explains on his website, understanding the real data (not the drama) can help you make smarter decisions in today’s market.

Sources:
FreddieMac.com, Realtor.com, Redfin.com, NAR.realtor